The IMF Says AI Will Touch Almost 40 Percent of Jobs Worldwide — and 60 Percent in Rich Countries

The International Monetary Fund's analysis finds that about half the affected jobs will be helped by AI and half hurt, and that the technology is likely to widen the gap between countries and between workers.

The International Monetary Fund published an analysis today estimating that artificial intelligence will affect almost 40 percent of jobs around the world. In advanced economies like the United States and Europe, the figure is about 60 percent, because those economies have more of the office and professional work that the technology can do. The fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, released the numbers ahead of this week's gathering of business and political leaders in Davos, where AI is the main topic.

The analysis divides the affected jobs roughly in half. For one half, AI will do part of the work and make the worker more productive — the report's example is a radiologist reading scans faster. For the other half, it will do tasks the worker was paid for, lowering wages or eliminating positions. Which half a given job falls into is, for now, a guess.

The fund's concern is inequality. Countries with the technology and the skilled workers to use it will pull ahead; countries without them will not be disrupted, but they will not benefit either. Within countries, higher-paid workers who can use the tools well will gain, and younger workers may adapt faster than older ones. "In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality," Georgieva wrote, and she urged governments to build social safety nets and retraining programs now, before they are needed.

It is the second large institution in a year to put a number on this, after Goldman Sachs's 300 million jobs last March, and the numbers agree on the shape: a lot of jobs, mostly the desk kind, and nobody sure yet which way it goes.